Göksel Göksu wrote: Will Kılıçdaroğlu, who said “You are either mine or your land”, go down in history as the leader who divided the CHP?

The CHP, which has taken the social opposition behind it after the March 19 operations, is waging a separate war on almost every front. It is the target of both the government and the opposition within the party… Will it close down, will it be divided into pieces, will a new party be established or will it emerge from this process stronger? I was in Ankara last week and sought answers to these questions. I started this article to write about what awaits the CHP, which Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who has clearly thought of nothing but becoming the CHP chairman again thanks to the “ absolute nullity ” entered in the court minutes on June 30, has taken hold of by displaying the attitude of “you are either mine or the black earth”.

Actually, the subject of this article was to examine what Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu was trying to do… I was going to write about a former party chairman who experienced his real loss of reputation in the 2023 elections, when he distributed deputies like hot cakes to political parties that did not even have 1 percent of the vote (-some of those deputies have now sided with the AKP) and when the secret protocol he signed with Ümit Özdağ was revealed, and he sought his lost reputation at the CHP convention and did this by burning his ships.

But what is possible? Keeping up with the agenda, sorting through the data with a healthy mind, predicting the next development based on the available data, trying to read the subtext of strategic moves is no different than solving equations with many unknowns. Just when you put the knowns in their place and sit down at the table to solve the unknowns based on that data, another variable comes into play. And there is no end to those variables… In fact, three new developments occurred before I sat down to write the article.

While the discussions of “Will the ‘absolute nullity’ decision, which is also included in the court minutes, be issued or not?” and “What will happen to the CHP and who will determine this fate?” continue, the indictment of another case that will most likely give its final shape to that fate has been completed. Although I will go into detail below, let me say at the beginning what I will say at the end: Just as the possibility of the court issuing an absolute nullity decision on June 30 is on the agenda, the possibility of it not being issued is also on the agenda. However, the criminal case whose indictment has been completed is not like that. These cases may merge and the real blow to the CHP, Ekrem İmamoğlu and Özgür Özel may come then.

Secondly, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is trying to give the impression that he is sitting in his office in Ankara and quietly watching what is going on with a dignified air and who, until yesterday, was watching the attacks made by the pens known to everyone to be close to him, will speak; or rather, he will write a statement like a pirated manifesto (left groups used to write their messages on mimeograph paper and send them to crowded places by the 'birding' method, nowadays these messages are easily conveyed to the target audience via social media) and send them by the birding method from his social media account.

The third was the 5th wave operation launched against CHP municipalities. Detention orders were issued for 47 people in total, including 5 mayors, including Büyükçekmece Mayor Hasan Akgün, Gaziosmanpaşa Mayor Hakan Bahçetepe and Avcılar Mayor Utku Caner Çaykara. In addition to IMM Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Esenyurt Mayor Ahmet Özer, Beşiktaş Mayor Rıza Akpolat, Beykoz Mayor Alaattin Köseler, Şişli Mayor Resul Emrah Şahan and Beylikdüzü Mayor Mehmet Murat Çalık, along with the mayors of 8 of the 26 CHP district municipalities in Istanbul were suspended from duty.

Of course, looking at this picture, one might think, “CHP is under attack from all sides, the equation is not full of unknowns, the only unknown in this equation is whether CHP will be shut down in one go or will it be divided and rendered ineffective?” The strange thing is that the answers to these questions change depending on where you look. Are you looking from the government, from the different wings of the ‘state’, from the Kılıçdaroğlu front, or from the window of the CHP, which has rebelled against all of these things with the support of the public?

What is happening on the ruling party front is a separate article topic, but it is possible to summarize that front by first dividing it into two as AKP and MHP, and then dividing AKP into three groups as “Palace, headquarters and party group”. The common denominator of the three-part structure is actually the economic crisis. No one can say with conviction that the economy is getting better, and those who do are not convincing. Everyone is aware of the fact that the crisis is also effective in the business world, and that the vast majority of business people, whether they have been appointed trustees or those associated with İmamoğlu, have supported the AKP until yesterday, and most importantly, that no matter how much they try to ignore it, no matter how much they try to criminalize it, the broad social support behind the CHP cannot be broken.

This reality is causing discordant voices to emerge from different wings of the AKP. For example, deputy chairman Nihat Zeybekci can declare during his visit to TÜSİAD that the March 19 political operation harmed the economy, the pro-government Yeni Şafak newspaper criticizes Mehmet Şimşek, those who find what was done to the CHP unjust either separate or part ways with the party as in the Üsküdar Municipality Council or try to give lessons in leftism to leftists as Mehmet Uçum did… However, President Tayyip Erdoğan has the final say and everyone aligns themselves behind that statement. The investigations, waves of detentions and arrests that follow one another continue with all their might.

The CHP, on the other hand, is succeeding in building a wall of flesh against the government under the leadership of Özgür Özel, who rose to prominence with his crisis management in Saraçhane after the March 19 operations, together with the Mayor of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and the CHP's presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu, who is actually in the streets despite being in prison.

İmamoğlu's social media account is being closed, he opens a new one and continues to give messages, his image is banned, CHP hangs his image on the Bosphorus Bridge, stands up for the youth, women, shopkeepers, low-income people, workers, civil servants, and most importantly, continues to seek justice by going from one square to another... While CHP is making calls after calls for everyone, especially Ekrem İmamoğlu and municipality employees, to be tried without arrest, what happens when the mayors of the municipalities it won on March 31, the general secretaries, the secretaries of the general secretaries, the managers and employees of the IMM affiliates, those in the decision-making center, everyone who provides services to the city are imprisoned one by one? The city's services such as roads, water, maintenance, repair, asphalt, rail system network, etc. are becoming increasingly inoperable. It is already clear as daylight that this effect will become more apparent in the coming period and the level of complaints about municipality services will increase.

You don’t need to be an astrologer to see the words we will hear in the squares in the upcoming elections: “Hey citizens, a municipality with CE-HA-PE means mountains of garbage, a municipality with CE-HA-PE means non-working subways, seven workers were left without salaries, you are longing for water!!!”

No one will talk about the cuts made from the Bank of Provinces, no one will remember that AKP municipalities were left untouched while CHP municipalities were seized due to their SGK debts, no one will care that services have come to a standstill due to the arrest of everyone who was in charge of those municipalities and the documents that those left behind refused to even sign… Even if they did, if we consider President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s proposal of “comprehensive changes in the metropolitan, district, city municipalities, and provincial special administration systems” in his speech at his party’s group meeting, arguing that municipal administrations were corrupt, when that day comes, the municipalities’ sources of income will have long since changed hands…

Because, in addition to the Municipalities Law No. 5393, the arrangements to be made in the Metropolitan Municipality Law will define the duties, authorities and responsibilities of municipalities more clearly; and the limitation and distribution of some of the authorities of metropolitan, district and city mayors are already among the topics being discussed.

On another front, the CHP is fighting for the institutional existence of its party and is trying to prevent the main opposition party from being redesigned. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is also watching what is happening from afar -let's not say rubbing his hands, but those who say so are in the majority-. Moreover, Kılıçdaroğlu is playing the leading role as the "victim" in the investigation launched regarding the 38th Ordinary Congress of the CHP held on November 4-5, 2023, in which he lost and Özgür Özel was elected as the party leader. As I said at the beginning of the article, the indictment has been completed in the investigation launched upon the allegations that that congress was suspicious.

This case is one of the three investigations conducted against the CHP and the most important one… One of the other two investigations is about the Istanbul Provincial Congress. The other is the case where the concept of “absolute bultan”, which has been frequently discussed in the public opinion in recent days and whose decision is expected to be made on June 30, was recorded in the minutes. In addition to this case, which is ongoing at the Ankara 42nd Criminal Court of Peace and filed by seven delegates, there is also a third criminal case whose indictment has just been prepared within the scope of the investigation conducted by the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office…

If this indictment, in which Kılıçdaroğlu is listed as the “victim,” is accepted, 12 people, including Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Izmir Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Cemil Tugay, CHP Istanbul Provincial Chairman Özgür Çelik, CHP PM Member Baki Aydöner, Beşiktaş Mayor Ali Rıza Akpolat, Hüseyin Yaşar, Mehmet Kılınçaslan, Metin Güzelkaya, Özgen Nama, Serhat Can Eş and Erkan Aydın, who were arrested and suspended from duty, will appear before the judge on charges of violating the Political Parties Law No. 2820.

Within the scope of the same file, the names of 9 MPs, including Özgür Özel, were separated within the scope of immunity and sent to the indictment.

In the indictment, 16 people are listed as witnesses, including former Hatay Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Lütfü Savaş as a complainant and Hatip Karaaslan, Tolgahan Erdoğan and Yılmaz Özkanat.

It is being assessed that the hearing to be held on June 30th may be full of surprises in this respect. Because when viewed from today, although it is being assessed that “the court may decide on impunity, appoint a trustee to the CHP or issue an absolute nullity decision,” the possibility of combining the cases with the criminal case is also on the agenda that day. In this case, absolute nullity is only one of the decisions that will be made depending on the course of the case in the future.

So what does the absolute nullity decision mean? In this case, the current party administration will be deemed invalid and the old administration will be reinstated. Who is the old administration? Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Party Assembly consisting of 60 people.

Of course, the court may also rule that a trustee be appointed to the CHP, but MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli has stated that he does not look favorably on the appointment of a trustee to the CHP, so the backstage says that the possibility of an absolute find is stronger. And after his long silence, Kılıçdaroğlu is also embracing this possibility with both his hands, as can be understood from his social media statement, which I describe as a pirate statement… Despite being called to testify both as a person harmed by the crime and as a witness in this case, Kılıçdaroğlu, who did not go to court, says in this statement, “Our silence is not silence, it is responsibility…” and explains how he was victimized, lynched, threatened, etc.

If the absolute nullity decision is made, a party will emerge from within the CHP that he chairs, all the pieces will be shaken and Kılıçdaroğlu will take over the party that he could not take over through elections with a judicial decision… At this point, the following question is being voiced in Ankara: “Even though he took over the CHP with a judicial decision, what has he done for his party that is under attack so far? Has he fought for democracy? Has İmamoğlu, who is being held in prison due to an investigation that has not even been indicted yet, been described as a ‘leader of a criminal organization’, and has he ever raised a voice against the removal of his photos in public spaces and the closure of his social media account? Is it possible for Kılıçdaroğlu to be the leader of the CHP under these circumstances?”

No! I will explain the reasons, but I will start by quoting the following words of a staff member who was very close to him during his time as chairman:

“I went to his house on the morning of May 29. I told him what could happen to him. I told him to terminate the duties of all advisors, including me. However, Mr. Kemal does not talk, he is very sneaky. He listens to everyone who comes, but he calculates in his mind. If I know Mr. Kemal, he is dying to be the party chairman again, he says ‘return reputation’, he calculates ‘let me be the party chairman for one more term, let me do a clean hands operation in my party, then let me leave it to someone young’. But when those seats are occupied, he does not let anyone go. In our political culture, except for Erdal İnönü, I have not come across anyone who says ‘I am leaving’. Mr. Kemal is dying to come again. Since he came from the state, he is someone who knows the state reflexes well, who is served serious information by the state. No information is served to Özgür Özel. Therefore, when I look now, it is obvious that a part of the state wants Mr. Kemal to come again.”

It is said that a politician who still acts together with Kılıçdaroğlu responded to the question of his close circle, "Is Kemal Bey's departure a state operation, and if so, how will he return?" with the following answer: "There is no single state, there are certain wings within the state. Therefore, one wing wants Kemal Bey to come. Kemal Bey is also keen on this."

Those who know Kılıçdaroğlu closely agree that he has mastered the party’s codes. On the other hand, there are those who do not share the same view and they say the following: “We were together when the first case was filed. I said, ‘Sir, what you need to do is say that I will not erode my party’s courtroom corridors, I will not debate, I will not allow the judiciary to interfere in politics.’ You should immediately tell Özgür Özel to convene an extraordinary congress and put an end to this.” “This would be opportunism,” said Kılıçdaroğlu… And now they say that what he said has come true, that Özgür Özel has emerged from the congress stronger and has regained prestige by managing the crisis in Saraçhane very well.

The same segment also agrees that they are aware that Kılıçdaroğlu is not accepted as a leader.

There are even those who say, “Mr. Kemal was going to become an object of hatred and he did. He has no reciprocity in society and his political book is closed never to be opened again.” According to this circle, Kılıçdaroğlu is aware that a significant portion of society believes that İmamoğlu is in prison because he is the only strong candidate against Tayyip Erdoğan. “He still wants to come,” they say. “Moreover, he wants to return even though the conditions under which he could run the party have completely disappeared.” Because when he takes over the party, he will work with the 60 party assembly members elected in the previous, 37th Ordinary General Assembly. 12 of those PM members (some became mayors, some became deputy chairmen, etc.) will be replaced by members coming from the reserves. According to rough calculations, the number of people who will act with Kılıçdaroğlu in the PM that will be formed will be at most 25. It is said that 8-9 people are taking a position somewhere in the middle and striving for the safety of the party. All the rest are made up of the change team. No one thinks it is possible for Kılıçdaroğlu to run the party with such a staff.

One of the most talked about topics in Ankara's backstages in recent days is that this situation will cause a division in the party and a new party will emerge. It is also said that the government's goal is "to divide and disintegrate the CHP and thus to be out of the picture." According to this thesis, the CHP will turn into an Alevi party and a different party will be established outside. Even the name of the newly established party has become a joke: They call it "EKİM Party" as an abbreviation for Ekrem İmamoğlu and add with a laugh, "Not because of the October of the Soviet revolution."

Who will put an end to this process?

Will Kılıçdaroğlu go down in history as the party leader who divided the founding party of the Republic? Or will the CHP led by Özgür Özel and its presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu continue on their path by supporting the party with the power they receive from the public support and the renewed confidence in the extraordinary congress, even if a definitive verdict is issued?